Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
